加裕養(yǎng)豬評(píng)論　　　　Pork Commentary　　　　加?？偛眉鍯EO Jim Long　　　　Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc.　　　　瘦肉豬期貨出現(xiàn)了生機(jī)！　　　　Lean Hog Futures Show Some Life!　　　　上周美國(guó)夏季瘦肉豬期貨價(jià)格每磅上漲了6美分，或者大約12美元/頭。在生豬市場(chǎng)持續(xù)下跌了幾周之后，很高興能夠看到一些生機(jī)。目前瘦肉現(xiàn)貨生豬價(jià)格是50美分，意味著大部分生豬生產(chǎn)商都在虧損，現(xiàn)在不是一個(gè)樂(lè)觀的時(shí)機(jī)，生產(chǎn)商需要更高的價(jià)格?！　　　∧肛i屠宰量反映了盈利能力和擴(kuò)張速度。美國(guó)今年1-3月的母豬屠宰量比去年同期高出24,000頭。3月份就比去年同期高出15,000頭?！　　　n the last week U.S summer lean hog futures have jumped 6￠ lb. or about $12.00 a head. Its great to see some life in the hog market after watching it sink continually for the last few weeks. Current Lean Cash hog price in the 50’s means most hog producers have been losing money, its not a fun time, producers need higher prices.　　　　Sow slaughter is a reflection of profitability and expansion. The U.S sow slaughter January-March is 24,000 higher year over year. March was 15,000 higher this year compared to last.　　　　今年母豬市場(chǎng)比去年行情更高。3月1日美國(guó)生豬報(bào)告指出，從16年12月1日到17年2月底，美國(guó)母豬存欄在下降。在我們看來(lái)母豬群體增長(zhǎng)并不顯著，年初至今更高的母豬屠宰量反映了這點(diǎn)?！　　　∥覀儼l(fā)現(xiàn)一些評(píng)論員的觀點(diǎn)挺有意思的，他們認(rèn)為是新的屠宰加工廠引起了母豬群體的擴(kuò)張?？赡苁前桑谖覀兛磥?lái)，擴(kuò)張的原因是盈利能力。自去年8月以來(lái)的情形看，我們行業(yè)還沒(méi)有盈利能力。沒(méi)有獨(dú)立生產(chǎn)商是由于新屠宰加工廠而擴(kuò)張的；他們只會(huì)為了利潤(rùn)而擴(kuò)張。一些屠宰場(chǎng)所有者正在增加母豬屠宰數(shù)量，但是我們并不認(rèn)為他們可以猛速增長(zhǎng)母豬屠宰數(shù)量。一些擁有屠宰業(yè)務(wù)的大型養(yǎng)豬公司已經(jīng)采購(gòu)了現(xiàn)有母豬的設(shè)備；他們正在增加母豬群體，但是不是全部的母豬群體?！　　　ow marketing’s are higher this year compared to last. The March 1 U.S hogs and pigs report indicated a decrease in the U.S sow herd from Dec 1 to the end of Feb. The higher sow slaughter year to date is a reflection in our opinion of a sow herd not growing significantly.　　　　We find it interesting when some commentators express the opinion that new packing plants are leading to rapid sowherd expansion. Could be, but in our opinion expansion comes from profitability. We haven’t had profitability as an industry that matters since last August. No independent producer is expanding due to a new packer plant; independents will expand because of profits. Some of the Packer owners are adding sows but we don’t believe its adding sows at a rapid rate. Some of the pork powerhouses that are involved in packing have bought existing sow facilities; they are growing their sow herds but not the total sow herd.　　　　瘦肉豬期貨　　　　Lean Hog Futures　　　　4月21日，7月的瘦肉豬期貨為69.225美分，7天之后即上周五4月28日，7月瘦肉豬期貨收盤(pán)于75.225美元。這里寫(xiě)到的上漲6美分，在10月份早些時(shí)候廋肉豬期貨也有相同的漲幅，從4月21日的62.425美分，到4月28日收于66.650美分，每磅漲了4美分，每頭豬增加了8美元。7月廋肉豬期貨的增加遵循我們看到的過(guò)山車(chē)似的價(jià)格。3月14日，7月的價(jià)格從79美分下跌到4月21日的69美分，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)反彈到75美分了?！　　　n April 21 lean hog futures for July were 69.225 last Friday April 28, 7 days later July closed at 75.225. The 6￠ lb. jump we wrote about earlier October lean hog futures also jumped going from 62.425 April 21 closing April 28 66.650, 4￠ a lb. jump or about $8 per head. The increase of July lean hog futures follow the roller coaster of prices we have seen. March 14, July was 79￠ dropped to 69￠ April 21 now have rebounded to 75￠.　　　　架子豬　　　　Feeder Pigs　　　　現(xiàn)貨架子豬價(jià)格真實(shí)地反映了供應(yīng)-需求-利潤(rùn)率。4月1日40磅的架子豬均價(jià)為每頭77美元。上周，也就是4周之后美國(guó)40磅的架子豬均價(jià)為每頭56美元。四周內(nèi)每頭豬降了20美元。同一時(shí)間瘦肉豬期貨也下降了，跟下跌的架子豬價(jià)格一同，受到了重創(chuàng)?！　　　ash Feeder Pig Prices are real reflection of supply – demand – profitability. At the first of April 40 lb. feeder pigs were averaging $77 each. Last week, four weeks later U.S 40 lb. feeder pigs averaged $56 each. A drop of $20 per head in four weeks. The lean hog futures dropped in the same time frame, with this drop feeder pig prices took a big hit.　　　　總結(jié)　　　　Summary　　　　我們根據(jù)母豬屠宰量提出疑問(wèn)，母豬數(shù)量是否有顯著擴(kuò)張。我們知道新屠宰場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)能正在提升。出口市場(chǎng)和國(guó)內(nèi)豬肉需求良好。我們期待今年夏天瘦肉豬價(jià)格能夠被推高到每磅豬80美分?！　　　e look at sow slaughter and we question if there is significant sow expansion. We know the new packing capacity is coming. Exports and Domestic Pork Demand is good. We expect lean hog prices will push to 80￠ lb. this summer.