2017年5月1日周價格表　　　　　　俄羅斯豬肉市場報告　　　　Russia Pork Market Report　　　　Simon Grey　　　　俄羅斯，獨聯(lián)體，歐洲區(qū)域總經(jīng)理　　　　General Manager Russia, CIS, and Europe　　　　simongrey@genesus.com　　　　目前豬肉價格是110盧布每公斤（1.92美元）。對于經(jīng)營良好的養(yǎng)殖戶來說，養(yǎng)豬依然利潤很大，但對于其他很多養(yǎng)殖戶來說不是。很多養(yǎng)殖戶甚至虧損（盡管看起來難以置信）。一周以前，我被問到“在俄羅斯糧食成本低（每公噸小麥8900盧布（156美元）），勞動力成本低（大約每月500美元），能源成本低（加油站每升汽油0.56美元）的時候，為什么生產(chǎn)成本如此之高”？　　　　俄羅斯想要繼續(xù)發(fā)展養(yǎng)豬業(yè)并且成為凈出口國。在我看來，這是一個非常明智的野心。俄羅斯有一個廣袤的土地儲備，可以生產(chǎn)更多的糧食。有很多的土地可以建造養(yǎng)殖場，當然還有利用糞漿處理—作為一種有價值的有機肥料，可以增加作物產(chǎn)量。這就是當今很多有技術(shù)的養(yǎng)豬戶能夠獲得全球競爭力的生產(chǎn)結(jié)果?！　　　“l(fā)展養(yǎng)豬業(yè)的一個主要障礙是高(平均)生產(chǎn)成本。當你想要經(jīng)營像豬肉這樣的全球大宗商品，你需要具有全球競爭力的成本。在任何商品市場，成本最低的生產(chǎn)商占有優(yōu)勢?！　　　ig price currently is currently 110 Roubles per live kg ($1,92). For good farmers, pigs continue to be very profitable, but for many not! Some are even losing money (incredible though it seems). I was asked a week or so ago, “why when Russia has low grain cost (wheat at 8900 Roubles ($156) per metric tonne), low labour cost (about $500 per month) and low energy cost (petrol $0.56 per litre at the pump) why are costs of production so high”?　　　　Russia wants to continue to grow its pig industry and become a net exporter. For me this is a very sensible ambition. Russia has a massive land bank and can produce a lot more grain. There is a lot of land to build farms on and of course use for slurry disposal - as a valuable organic fertilizer that can increase crop yields. There are today a lot of skilled pig farmers who can get globally competitive production results.　　　　One major obstacle to this happening is a high (average) cost of production. When you want to trade a global commodity like pig meat, you need to be globally competitive on cost. In any commodity market the lowest cost producers have the advantage.　　　　隨著歐洲養(yǎng)豬業(yè)的成長，也曾經(jīng)在世界最大的生豬生產(chǎn)商工作過，很容易看出俄羅斯養(yǎng)豬行業(yè)的額外成本?！　　　aving grown up within the European pig industry and also having worked for the world’s largest pig producer it is very easy to see where the extra costs are.　　　　1.先進是過度立法，其中大部分來自蘇聯(lián)。在前蘇聯(lián)時期，每個人必須工作。創(chuàng)辦國有農(nóng)場是為了養(yǎng)活人們和讓人們有職業(yè)，而不是為了盈利?！　　　∮行┈F(xiàn)代立法似乎來自于歐盟。據(jù)我所見，歐盟穩(wěn)固立法使得養(yǎng)豬戶退出生產(chǎn)，隨著越來越多的規(guī)則，只是增加了生產(chǎn)成本，最終僅僅是把豬肉成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給了消費者??！　　　　過度立法是許多高成本的原因。就在上周，我去了一個成立于前蘇聯(lián)時期的農(nóng)場。里面有超過400人服務7000頭母豬！生產(chǎn)每頭豬的薪酬成本大大高于歐洲或北美?！　　　」芾沓杀?、董事們、會計師、律師等等成本，超過了每頭豬銷售的9美元。我認為這部分成本應該為每頭豬1美元，就算是考慮到俄羅斯的過度管理成本，最多也就2美元?！　　　∵^度立法增加了所有事情的成本。農(nóng)場造價昂貴（雖然勞動成本和建筑材料成本低）。批準建造的過程就很花費高，而且耗時長。獲得銀行貸款受行政管理，過程復雜。　　　　1, The first is excessive legislation, most of which comes from the USSR. In soviet times, everyone had to have a job. State farms were created to feed and occupy people, not to be profitable.　　　　There is some modern legislation that seems to originate from the EU. As far as I can see, the EU is steadily legislating its pig farmers out of business, with more and more rules that simply add to cost of production and ultimately only put up the cost of pork for the consumer!!　　　　This excess legislation is the cause for many high costs. Just last week I was at a farm that was set up in Soviet times. There were over 400 people working with 7000 sows! The total salary cost per pig produced was considerably higher than either Europe or North America.　　　　The administration costs, directors, accountant’s lawyer’s etc. was in excess of $9.00 per pig sold. I would be targeting $1per pig, even taking into account the excess administration in Russia a maximum of $2!　　　　Excess legislation adds to the cost of everything. Farms are expensive to build (despite low cost labour and building materials). The process of getting permissions is expensive and slow. Getting bank loans is administrative and complicated.　　　　2. “我想要”文化。過去12年里，我在俄羅斯生活過很長時間，我觀察到很多被媽媽慣壞了的孩子，尤其是男孩。他們小時候就學會可以得到他們想要的任何東西。這種行為跟隨他們進入了工作生活中。寵壞了的孩子永遠學不會事物的真正價值?！　　　≡谠O計農(nóng)場時，“我想要”增加了成本。在決定飼養(yǎng)原料、藥品或其他補給時，“我想要”增加了成本。在決定雇傭多少人和發(fā)放多少薪水時，“我想要”增加了成本?！　　　?, The “I want” culture. Having spent a lot of time in Russia over the past 12 years I observe many spoilt children, especially boys, spoiled by their mothers! They learn from an early age that they can get whatever they want. This behaviour follows some into their working lives. Spoilt children never learn the real value of something.　　　　When designing farms, ‘I want’ adds to the cost. When deciding on feed ingredients or medicines or other supplies, I want’ adds to cost. When deciding on how many people and salaries ‘I want’ also adds to cost.　　　　3.無法做出決定。這是前蘇聯(lián)時期“懲罰文化”導致的。犯錯誤會被懲罰，成功卻被忽視。直至今天，如果一個俄羅斯農(nóng)場經(jīng)營不善，我覺得99%的精力會投入找到誰是責任人，而不是去解決這個問題?！　　　『ε率軕土P意味著許多場長每天關(guān)注的焦點在于如何避免犯錯誤，并且試圖找到一個罪魁禍首。很多時候我在豬場問經(jīng)理要一個簡單的生產(chǎn)報告。很多時候我都被告知，對不起，我不能提供，數(shù)據(jù)輸入員今天休息，只有她才能打印報告。我回答，但是你是場長，你肯定能夠獲得信息并且能運行管理程序?；卮?，不，這不是我的工作！　　　　無法做出決定，意味著相比于冒險改變事情，不改變事情會更加容易。因此，什么都沒改變，生產(chǎn)保持不變，不可避免的成本上升！上升！　　　　決策是非常容易的。好的決策能夠增加利潤（售價更高，成本更低）。糟糕的決定會減少利潤（更低售價或者更高成本，或者二者均有）。場長，從定義上看，是受雇于管理，這就要求場長對日常事務要做出決定。你所需要的就是一個計算器，來判定決定是好還是壞?！　　　?, Inability to take decisions. This is caused by the “punishment culture” that comes from Soviet times. Mistakes were punished, success ignored. Still today if something goes wrong on a Russian farm, it seems to me that 99% of the effort is put into finding who was responsible, rather than sorting the problem.　　　　Fear of punishment means many managers daily focus is avoiding mistakes and trying to find someone to blame for anything. I have been on farms many time and asked manager for a simple production report. Many time I have been told, sorry I can’t, the data in-putter is on holiday today and only she can print reports. My response, but you are the manager, surely you have access to information and can run the management program? Answer, no its not my job!　　　　The inability to take a decision means its easier to change nothing, than risk changing something. Therefore, nothing changes, production stays the same and inevitably costs rise and rise!　　　　Taking decisions is very easy. Good decisions increase profitability (more sales or lower cost or both). Bad decisions reduce profitability (less sales or higher cost or both). Managers by definition, are employed to manage, this requires taking decisions on a daily basis! A calculator is usually all you need to decide is a decision is good or bad.　　　　4.補貼和保護市場。兩者都對幫助建立行業(yè)有重要作用，但只有在作為催化劑的時候（行業(yè)必須在在沒有支持的情況下盈利，否則補貼就是一個壞主意）?！　　　∽罱K不論如何補貼對于幫助公司成為全球競爭者并沒有起作用。他們只幫助公司保持低效率和低盈利?！　　　?, Subsidies and protected market. Both have an important place in helping to establish business, but only as a catalyst (the business has to be profitable without the support, otherwise it is a rally bad idea to subsidise).　　　　Ultimately however subsidies do nothing to help companies become globally competitive. They do help to keep inefficient and poorly business profitable!　　　　5.經(jīng)常有人告訴我說“俄羅斯人喜歡痛苦”。這是使俄羅斯變成今天的俄羅斯的原因（我們只需看看俄羅斯是如何處理第二次世界大戰(zhàn)時德國的入侵）。俄羅斯人民忍受惡劣的工作和生活條件，低工資，低質(zhì)量食物，糟糕的服務的能力，真是難以置信!我聽過很多次“這就是俄羅斯”。　　　　接受“事物一直如此，什么都不會改變”會阻礙真正的發(fā)展?！　　　≡诙砹_斯可以看到一些非常聰明的企業(yè)家，想要創(chuàng)建先進的具有全球競爭力的業(yè)務。我看到很多非常聰明的年輕場長，他們理解成本高的問題，他們對于要在桌子上填寫報表，而不能在農(nóng)場上生產(chǎn)更多的豬十分沮喪。我還看到農(nóng)場里面許多熟練的生產(chǎn)工人，他們更愿意做更多的工作和賺更多的錢?！　　　?, ‘Russians like suffering’ is something I am often told. This is something that has made Russia what it is today (we need only look at how Russia dealt with the German invasion in the 2nd world war. The ability of Russian people to put up with poor work and living conditions, low salaries, poor quality food, bad service, is incredible! I hear so many times “its Russia”.　　　　Accepting what has always been and nothing will change stops real development.　　　　In Russia is see some very clever business owners that want to get on and create excellent globally competitive business. I see many very clever young managers who understand the problems of high cost and who get very frustrated being desk bound filling in forms, rather than being on farms producing more pigs. I also see many skilled production workers on farms who are more than willing to do more and earn more money.　　　　俄羅斯很容易提高2倍（也許3倍）生豬產(chǎn)量，但不是通過雇傭一個人。　　　　這會發(fā)生嗎？時間會告訴我們的。　　　　Russia could easily double (and maybe triple) its pig production and not hire a single person!　　　　Will all this happen? Time will tell.　　　　Simon Grey　　　　俄羅斯、獨聯(lián)體和歐洲區(qū)域總經(jīng)理?！　　　imon Grey　　　　General Manager Russia, CIS and Europe.