加裕養(yǎng)豬評(píng)論　　　　Pork Commentary　　　　加?？偛眉鍯EO Jim Long　　　　Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc　　　　美國(guó)瘦肉型生豬達(dá)到90美分　　　　US Lean Hogs Reach 90￠　　　　上周五美國(guó)瘦肉型生豬價(jià)格達(dá)到每磅90美分。豬肉的需求和低量的生豬供應(yīng)把價(jià)格推得更高。加工商的利潤(rùn)率仍然不錯(cuò)，美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部的豬肉胴體屠宰分割價(jià)格超過(guò)每磅1.01美元，生產(chǎn)商和加工商都在賺錢(qián)。這是豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)在迪士尼樂(lè)園奇幻的一天?！　　　ast Friday US lean hogs reached 90￠ lb. Pork demand is and lower hog supplies are driving prices higher. Packers margins remain good with USDA pork carcass cut-outs over $1.01 per lb. Producers and Packers both making money. It’s a virtual day at Disneyland for the Pork Industry.　　　　我父親總是說(shuō)，市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)向的一個(gè)主要指標(biāo)是“誰(shuí)在給誰(shuí)打電話(huà)”。 加工商稱(chēng)幾乎好幾個(gè)月沒(méi)有人在尋找生豬，在世界豬肉博覽會(huì)上我們接到了加工商的電話(huà)。對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)，這預(yù)示著價(jià)格上漲。自世界豬肉博覽會(huì)以來(lái)，瘦肉型生豬已經(jīng)上漲了每磅10美分或每頭豬20美元。誰(shuí)在給誰(shuí)打電話(huà)！隨著新屠宰加工廠(chǎng)的投產(chǎn)，我們期待更多的來(lái)電。隨著豬肉分割價(jià)格超過(guò)了每磅1.00美元的浮動(dòng)，以及更低量的生豬供應(yīng)，經(jīng)營(yíng)良好的加工商盈利豐厚。我們預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾周將有更高的分割豬肉價(jià)格和更高的瘦肉型生豬價(jià)格。　　　　My father always said a major indicator of market direction was “who’s calling who.” For many months Packers called virtually no one looking for hogs, at the World Pork Expo we had Packers calling. To us it was an indication of a coming surge in prices. Since the WPX lean hogs have jumped over 10￠ lb. or $20 per head. Who’s calling who! As the new packing plants come on board we expect even more calling. With surging Pork cut - outs over $1.00 a lb. lower hog supplies, good packer margins. We expect higher pork cut – outs and higher lean hog prices over the next few weeks.　　　　幾個(gè)月來(lái)，即使是夏季瘦肉型生豬期貨也有60美分，我們堅(jiān)定地寫(xiě)道，夏季的瘦肉型生豬將會(huì)達(dá)到80美分。這是基于我們所監(jiān)測(cè)的全球生豬價(jià)格，它是北美在出口市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的指標(biāo)。出口拉動(dòng)價(jià)格。許多預(yù)測(cè)者談到很多國(guó)家他們從未去過(guò)或經(jīng)營(yíng)過(guò)業(yè)務(wù)。我們的業(yè)務(wù)有幸能獲得全球市場(chǎng)的每日?qǐng)?bào)道；這有助于我們預(yù)測(cè)過(guò)去被稱(chēng)為“后40英畝”?！　　　or months even when summer lean hog futures were in the 60’s we steadfastly wrote summer lean hogs would reach into the 80’s. This was based on Global Hog Prices we monitor as indicators where North American competes in the export market. Exports pull prices. A lot of forecasters talk about countries they never been too or done business in. We are fortunate in our business to get daily Global Market exposure; it helps us see beyond what used to be called the “back 40 acres”.　　　　這是加裕公司直接參與全球大型生產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的原因之一。這是一個(gè)全球性的產(chǎn)業(yè)。我們需要“放眼全球，立足當(dāng)下”。　　　　It’s one of the reasons Genesus is directly involved in the Global Mega Producer project. It’s a Global Industry. We need to all “Think Globally, Act Locally”.　　　　這個(gè)鏈接可以讓你參觀(guān)在世界豬肉博覽會(huì)上舉行的全球大型生產(chǎn)商的采訪(fǎng)。　　　　This link will take you to an interview re Global Mega Producer held at the World Pork Expo.　　　　http://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/marketing/global-changes-pork-industry　　　　安大略省豬肉會(huì)議　　　　ontario Pork Congress　　　　過(guò)去一周我們出席了安大略省豬肉會(huì)議。安大略省是加拿大一個(gè)擁有30萬(wàn)頭母豬的省份?！　　　his past week we attended the ontario Pork Congress. ontario as a province of Canada has about 300,000 sows.　　　　我們的觀(guān)察　　　　Our Observations　　　　加拿大的價(jià)格反映出開(kāi)心的生產(chǎn)商正在沖擊著美國(guó)生豬價(jià)格，1加元價(jià)值75美分，正指揮著加拿大從分娩到育肥之間的利潤(rùn)（目前每頭豬70-90美元）?！　　　?em>Happy Producers Surging U.S hog prices which Canada mirrors and a Canadian dollar that is worth 75￠ to the U.S dollar is leading to Canadian Farrow to Finish profits of between ($70-90 per head currently)　　　　安大略沒(méi)有足夠的屠宰加工產(chǎn)能。每周有2-2.5萬(wàn)頭豬運(yùn)輸10個(gè)小時(shí)到魁北克的市場(chǎng)?！　　　?em>ontario has not enough packing capacity. 20-25,000 head a week travel 10 hours to Quebec for market.　　　　安大略省有很多生產(chǎn)商。其中只有2個(gè)生產(chǎn)商擁有超過(guò)1萬(wàn)頭母豬，他們?cè)?5000頭的范圍內(nèi)。大多數(shù)是家庭農(nóng)場(chǎng)，種玉米，養(yǎng)豬，擁有自己的土地。許多地區(qū)的土地是每英畝2萬(wàn)加元(44,000美元每公頃)。來(lái)自土地和牲畜生產(chǎn)的財(cái)富使許多生產(chǎn)商擁有數(shù)百萬(wàn)的資產(chǎn)凈值。　　　　ontario has many producers. There are only 2 producers with over 10,000 sows, they are in the 15,000 range. Most are family farms, grow corn, raise hogs, own land. Land is in many areas is C $20,000 an acre ($44,000 Hectare). The wealth from land and livestock production has lead to many producers having net worth in the multi million range.　　　　有一些新的母豬場(chǎng)正在建造，一些已經(jīng)建完。很難獲得建筑許可。2500頭的母豬場(chǎng)-500萬(wàn)美元。育肥場(chǎng)里2500頭豬需要價(jià)值300美元的空間。有些擴(kuò)張，但較小的生產(chǎn)質(zhì)量。每英畝土地價(jià)值2萬(wàn)美元，繁育更新，豬舍-設(shè)備的使用年限，勞動(dòng)力的可用性，所有這些使得一些人退出了生產(chǎn)。當(dāng)塵埃落定時(shí)，我們預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)有多少凈母豬數(shù)量擴(kuò)張?！　　　?em>There are some new sow barns being built, some finishing. Hard to get building permits to build. Sow Barns 2500 sows - $5 million U.S. Finishing $300 U.S space (2500 head). Some expansion but also smaller produces quality. Land at $20,000 acre, generational change, age of barns – equipment, labor availability, all contributing to some producer exiting. When dust settles we expect little net sow expansion.　　　　在安大略省豬肉會(huì)議上，有很多關(guān)于密歇根州新屠宰加工廠(chǎng)的言論。那里離一些安大略生產(chǎn)商只有不到4小時(shí)的路程。當(dāng)這個(gè)廠(chǎng)開(kāi)始投建的時(shí)候，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致一些豬群的移動(dòng)。當(dāng)密歇根州的屠宰加工廠(chǎng)投產(chǎn)時(shí)，泰森食品、印度豬肉和JBS Swift ad Hadfield可采購(gòu)的生豬將會(huì)更少。　　　　Lots of talk at ontario Pork Congress about the new packing plant in Michigan. It is less then 4 hours from some ontario Producers. When it starts up probably will lead to some shifting where hogs go. Tyson, Indian Pork and JBS Swift ad Hadfield pens will have fewer hogs to chase when Michigan starts.　　　　在加拿大，加工商不會(huì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)瘦肉精生豬。而美國(guó)仍然有大量的瘦肉精豬。安大略省的生豬生產(chǎn)商注意到了飼喂瘦肉精生豬在成本和性能方面的好處。生產(chǎn)商已經(jīng)迷失在這種利益中了。有幾個(gè)生產(chǎn)商告訴我們，如果美國(guó)的加工商會(huì)買(mǎi)飼喂瘦肉精的豬，那么他們會(huì)想去美國(guó)養(yǎng)豬。這就是經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢(shì)?！　　　?em>In Canada Packers will not purchase Paylean hogs. In the U.S lots of Paylean pigs still fed. ontario Hog Producers see the benefit of feeding Paylean in cost and performance. The Producers have lost that benefit. A couple producers told us that if U.S packers would buy Paylean fed pigs, they would want to go there. The economic advantage.　　　　全球大型生產(chǎn)商　　　　Global Mega Producers