“The Chinese hog industry had a happy 2016 with profitable hog price about 668 Yuan ($98US) per animal according to 溫氏集團(tuán) the largest hog producer in China. The industry is also cautiously optimistic about the year of rooster 2017. The comparison of national pig data between 2015 and 2016 indicates that domestic pork consumption per capita declined by 1.4%. The total number of pigs sold to market in 2016 was about 671 million, reduced by 5.1% against 2015. The total pork yield is also reduced by 2.7%. Given the profitability in 2016, pig farms slowed down the culling of sows, less sows were culled in 2016. Meanwhile, hog producers are motivated to expand the sow herds, high health purebred and F1 gilts are highly demanded, many reputable pig breeding farms have pre-sold out the products for the entire year 2017. The national sow inventory was increased by 1.5% in 2016, more likely in 2017. The import of pork continuously rise in 2016, increased by 112.1% comparing with 2015. Detail breakdown data is included in Table 1 below.”

　　

　　

　　

　　值得注意的是，中國(guó)在2016消費(fèi)了55120000噸豬肉。2016，中國(guó)進(jìn)口了1，650，000噸豬肉。豬肉進(jìn)口總量?jī)H占豬肉消費(fèi)總量的3%。似乎沒(méi)有什么，但確實(shí)是所有出口豬肉國(guó)家一個(gè)大的價(jià)格助推器。我國(guó)農(nóng)民算術(shù)告訴我們進(jìn)口總額等于4500萬(wàn)生豬市場(chǎng)，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的平均重量。

　　

　　Of note, China in 2016 consumed 55,120,000 tons of pork. In 2016, China imported 1,650,000 tons of pork. The total pork imported is only 3% of total pork consumption. Next to nothing, but a big price booster for all exporting pork countries. Our farmer arithmetic tells us the total imports were equal to 45 million market hogs, average China market weight.

　　

　　生產(chǎn)力是巨大挑戰(zhàn)，每頭母豬每年銷售15.66。疾病和高死亡率仍居高不下。此外，豬的遺傳利用滯后。業(yè)內(nèi)具有較高的盈利能力，似乎許多市場(chǎng)生豬有被養(yǎng)殖牲畜的資格。上限生產(chǎn)潛力。每頭母豬每年生產(chǎn)1.242公斤的肉有很大的生產(chǎn)空間。最后，最大的因素是13億8000萬(wàn)人平均人均消費(fèi)39.9公斤豬肉（88磅），并且我們現(xiàn)在和之后的仍有巨大的需求。

　　

　　Productivity is a challenge, marketed per sow per year is 15.66. There are big disease challenges and mortality is high. Also, swine genetics utilisation lags behind. With high profitability in the industry, it seems many market hogs qualify for breeding stock. This caps productivity potential. Meat produced per sow per year at 1.242 kg has lots of room for improvement. In the end, the biggest factor is 1.38 billion people averaging 39.9 kg pork consumption per capita (88 lbs), and you got the huge demand now and for our lifetime.

　　

　　其他觀察

　　

　　當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)

　　

　　Current Market

　　

　　斷奶豬每公斤37.82元  -- 20公斤豬110美元Weaner pigs 37.82 RMB/kg – 20kg pig $110 US

　　

　　玉米每公斤1.54元  = 每Corn 1.54 RMB/kg = $5.70 US/bushel

　　

　　豆粕每公斤3.33元=每噸440美元Soybean meal 3.33 RMB/kg = $440 US/ton

　　

　　總生豬成本 – 分娩到育肥 = 每頭263美元Total Hog Cost – Farrow to Finish = $263 US per head

　　

　　當(dāng)前分娩到育肥利潤(rùn)668元=每頭98美元Current margin Farrow to Finish 668 RMB = 98$ US per head

　　

　　溫氏集團(tuán)2016年生產(chǎn)和出欄了17500000頭豬。按每頭豬98美元（668元），可以獲得大約17億利潤(rùn)。在合適的時(shí)候有這么多豬太好了！

　　

　　 produced and marketed 17,500,000 head in 2016. At 98 US per head (668 RMB), could be around $1.7 billion in profit. It’s good to own lots of pigs at the right time!

　　

　　總結(jié)

　　

　　當(dāng)我們關(guān)注中國(guó)生豬價(jià)格和當(dāng)前母豬庫(kù)存最小的增加（60，000），我們預(yù)計(jì)在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)可將生豬肉持續(xù)大量出口到中國(guó)。

　　

　　When we look at hog prices in China and the minimum increase (60,000) in the current sow inventory, we expect continued large exports to China for the foreseeable future.

　　

　　Gene Editing-Altering

　　

　　上周，我們寫了關(guān)于U.S.FDA的建議，有轉(zhuǎn)基因改變處理批準(zhǔn)程序（類似于批準(zhǔn)一種新的藥物）。我們寫道，我們關(guān)注的是整個(gè)過(guò)程可能會(huì)危及豬肉需求和影響消費(fèi)者接受力。PIC的努力：PRRS是可行的。我們同意。但要點(diǎn)不是這個(gè)。于1999年在蓋爾弗大學(xué)研發(fā)的Enviropigs案例?；蚋脑熵i直到2012年培育了10代。從未批準(zhǔn)食用。沒(méi)有市場(chǎng)。在我們看來(lái)，消費(fèi)者需求的變化使得這樣的產(chǎn)品更難向前推進(jìn)。下面是一篇來(lái)自紐約時(shí)報(bào)的文章：Enviropigs.

　　

　　Last week, we wrote about U.S. FDA’s proposal to have Gene Editing-Altering treated with an approval procedure similar to a new drug. We wrote that we are concerned on how the whole process could jeopardize pork demand and consumer acceptance. PIC’s efforts re: PRRS is doable. We agree with that. That’s not our point. A case in point in the Enviropigs, developed at the University of Guelph in 1999. The Gene Altered pig was kept in production until 2012, 10 generations. Never approved for food chain. There was no market. In our opinion, the change in consumer wants has made such a product harder to move forward with. Below is an article from the New York Times re: Enviropigs.

　　

　　Move to Market Gene-Altered Pigs in Canada Is Halted

　　

　　By:  Andrew Pollack

　　

　　根據(jù)首席研究員所知，有一個(gè)加拿大項(xiàng)目，其旨在創(chuàng)建一個(gè)基因工程豬使其糞便對(duì)環(huán)境的危害較小，但是并沒(méi)有找到一家公司愿意把該項(xiàng)目推向市場(chǎng)，因此之后被停止。

　　

　　A Canadian project aimed at creating a genetically engineered pig whose manure would be less harmful to the environment is being halted after failure to find a company willing to bring the animal to market, according to the lead researcher.

　　

　　污染少的豬，被稱為“enviropig，”它有一個(gè)基因能夠更好地消化食物中的磷，從而減少糞便中磷的含量。安大略豬肉，這是一個(gè)有組織的養(yǎng)豬戶， 該項(xiàng)目在蓋爾弗大學(xué)得到財(cái)政支持，但此時(shí)已被決定停止繼續(xù)對(duì)此項(xiàng)目開(kāi)支。

　　

　　The less polluting pig, called the “enviropig,” has a gene that allows it to better digest phosphorous in its food, therefore reducing the amount of phosphorous in the manure. Phosphorous can contribute to algal blooms and other environmental problems. ontario Pork, an organization of hog farmers that had been financially supporting the project at the University of Guelph in Ontario, has decided to stop spending money on it.

　　

　　Cecil Forsberg是此項(xiàng)目的一位共同發(fā)明人，也是大學(xué)分子生物學(xué)的名譽(yù)教授，他同意了這個(gè)決定。

　　

　　Cecil Forsberg, an emeritus professor of molecular and cellular biology at the university who was a co-inventor of the pig, said he agreed with the decision.

　　

　　當(dāng)先進(jìn)個(gè)這樣的豬（該項(xiàng)目）在1999創(chuàng)建時(shí)，F(xiàn)orsberg 博士說(shuō)：“我有感覺(jué)在七或八年或九年，轉(zhuǎn)基因動(dòng)物可能會(huì)被接受。但是我錯(cuò)了?！?/div>