中國目前的生豬活重價(jià)格是16.49人民幣/kg，即活重1.08美元/磅。美國活重價(jià)格是0.47美元/磅，西班牙是0.62美元/磅。不難算出，中國養(yǎng)豬戶比美國養(yǎng)豬戶每養(yǎng)一頭豬多收入125美元。這反映了中國國內(nèi)的供需關(guān)系。

　　

　　China’s current hog price liveweight is 16.49 CNY/kg, or $1.08 USD liveweight/lb. The U.S.A. liveweight price is $0.47/lb and Spain $0.62/lb. It doesn’t take an ag-economist sitting in a university cubicle to figure that Chinese producers are receiving up to $125 per head more than U.S. producers. A reflection of Chinese domestic supply and demand.

　　

　　

　　•盡管中國農(nóng)業(yè)創(chuàng)歷史記錄，但是2月份的報(bào)告顯示，中國母豬規(guī)模相比1月份進(jìn)一步減少了0.5%，跌至3630萬頭。中國母豬群體規(guī)模已經(jīng)比2013年2月的4500萬頭減少了900萬頭。顯然，如果母豬群體規(guī)模繼續(xù)減少，生豬數(shù)量很難提升起來。

　　

　　•中國月份進(jìn)口了噸豬肉，同比增長。我們計(jì)算一下，這個(gè)噸位等于這個(gè)月內(nèi)進(jìn)口了約萬頭生豬。十分明顯，中國的供應(yīng)還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不能滿足目前的需求水平。如果中國生豬價(jià)格下跌，降低豬肉價(jià)格將會(huì)刺激豬肉消費(fèi)，增加噸位需求。

　　

　　•在美國，近幾年一直沒有富余的屠宰能力。屠宰加工商有較好的的利潤。因此，正在投建新的屠宰加工廠。在中國，就是一個(gè)完全不同的情況了。結(jié)果是減少了萬母豬。根據(jù)中國農(nóng)業(yè)部統(tǒng)計(jì)，中國有個(gè)生豬屠宰場(chǎng)。他們?cè)谛迈r豬肉分割（占）和加工豬肉產(chǎn)品（占）之前，仍然有的胴體產(chǎn)出。他們目前以的產(chǎn)能工作。?。〖词故巧a(chǎn)萬頭豬的雙匯（史密斯菲爾德）也在以的產(chǎn)能工作。初級(jí)加工的平均利潤率是，而大規(guī)模的二次加工的利潤則有。令人吃驚的是，在年到年期間，大型屠宰場(chǎng)的生豬屠宰比例已經(jīng)下降了到。

　　

　　•中國養(yǎng)豬生產(chǎn)的一個(gè)制約因素是政府需要考慮政策措施，在土地法和補(bǔ)貼方面，既關(guān)注到環(huán)境保護(hù)，又要保證生豬供應(yīng)。現(xiàn)在，由于環(huán)保政策，許多養(yǎng)豬戶直接被迫關(guān)閉或拆除豬場(chǎng)。以上可知，上面這些因素是中國母豬規(guī)模持續(xù)下降的部分原因。

　　

　　•Despite record profits, China Agri reports that in February, China’s sow herd declined further 0.5% from January to 36.3 million. China’s sow herd has declined about 9 million from 45 million in February 2013. Obviously, it’s hard to increase hog numbers if sow herd keeps declining.

　　

　　•China imported 181,900 tonnes of pork in February, an increase of 153.8% year on year. We calculate this tonnage is equal to about 2 million market hogs imported for the month. It is obvious China’s supply is far from meeting its current demand level. If and when the hog price declines in China, lower pork prices will increase pork consumption, increasing tonnage demand.

　　

　　•In U.S.A., there has been no surplus of slaughter capacity over the last while. Packers have had good margins. Consequently, new packing capacity is under construction. In China, a different story. The consequence of 9 million fewer sows. According to China Agri, there are 5,000 pig abattoirs in China. They still produce carcasses (65% of output), ahead of fresh pork cuts (20%) and processed pork products (15%). They are currently working at 30% capacity. 30%! Even Sheung Shui (Smithfield) with an output of 13 million pigs works at 40% capacity. Average margin for primary processing is 5.5% against 20-30% for large-scale secondary processing. Surprisingly, the percentage of pigs slaughtered in large abattoirs has fallen from 24% to 31% between 2010 and 2016.

　　

　　•One of the constraints on China’s swine production is the government’s need to consider its policy package to address concerns of both environment protection and pork supply in terms of land law and subsidies. Currently, many hog farmers are simply forced to shut down or demolished due to the environmental policy. From what we can understand, these factors are part of the reason China sow inventory continues to decline.

　　

　　當(dāng)養(yǎng)豬行業(yè)利潤高的時(shí)候，總是會(huì)有很多公司擴(kuò)張。中國也不例外。不是如果，而是現(xiàn)在。每個(gè)月每頭豬盈利100美元左右將導(dǎo)致更多的豬出現(xiàn)。

　　

　　在加拿大種豬出口協(xié)會(huì)Hu Song的一份報(bào)告中，豬肉行業(yè)是2016年中國投資者的一個(gè)熱門領(lǐng)域。在股票市場(chǎng)中與養(yǎng)豬相關(guān)的上市公司總投資有414億人民幣（60億美元），占整個(gè)畜牧業(yè)總投資的84.8%，相比2015年增加了9.5倍。2016年共投資了22個(gè)省的153個(gè)養(yǎng)豬項(xiàng)目。據(jù)估計(jì)新建豬場(chǎng)設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)能是年產(chǎn)2700萬頭生豬（新希望分析師王曉岳女士）。

　　

　　在2016年，加裕公司是出口種豬基因到中國的全球領(lǐng)先出口國。2017年，我們將會(huì)繼續(xù)關(guān)注中國新建豬場(chǎng)的情況。有意思的是，到目前為止母豬群體清盤的速度一直超過新建豬場(chǎng)的速度。

　　

　　十億美元的問題：這個(gè)現(xiàn)象什么時(shí)候結(jié)束？

　　

　　When there are good profits in the hog industry, there is always expansion. China will be no different. It’s not if, but when. Profits of around $100 USD per head month upon month will lead to more hogs.

　　

　　In a report from Hu Song of CSEA, the swine sector is a hot area for Chinese Investors in 2016. The total investment related to swine from public companies in stock markets was 41.4 billion RMB ($6 billion USD), accounting for 84.4% of total investment in the livestock sector, increased by 9.5 times compared to 2015. The 2016 investments were spent in 153 swine projects, located in 22 provinces.  It is estimated the new barns will produce 27 million hogs per year on its designed capacity (Ms. Wang Xiaoyue, analyst from New Hope).

　　

　　In 2016, Genesus was the global leading exporter of swine genetics to China. We continue to see the reality of new sow barns in China in 2017. The interesting factor is up to now liquidation of existing sow herds continues to outstrip the new construction.

　　

　　Billion dollar question: when will that phenomenon stop?

　　

　　

　　Lorne Tannas Appointed General Manager, China

　　

　　Lorne Tannas

　　

　　

　　加裕公司高興地宣布，Lorne Tannas擔(dān)任中國區(qū)總經(jīng)理。Lorne在養(yǎng)豬生產(chǎn)中有著卓越的履歷。

　　

　　Genesus is pleased to announce Lorne Tannas as General Manager, China. Lorne has had a distinguished career in swine production.

　　

　　工作經(jīng)歷：

　　

　　•從事養(yǎng)豬行業(yè)超過30年，曾在幾個(gè)大型公司擔(dān)任生產(chǎn)經(jīng)理和主管

　　

　　•主管/經(jīng)營加裕2500頭母豬規(guī)模核心豬場(chǎng)-15年加?？蛻?/div>