2017年4月24日周價(jià)格表

　　加拿大-土地&生豬公司

　　

　　Bob Fraser – Sales & Service, Genesus Ontario

　　

　　

　　我以前評論的安大略省土地和生豬公司，雖然聽起來不像Bar X土地和養(yǎng)牛公司那樣獨(dú)特，但是再一次被證明是一個(gè)非常可持續(xù)模式。從下面2篇最近的報(bào)道中得出。

　　

　　Although it may not sound as exotic as the Bar X Land & Cattle Company as I’ve commented before the ontario Land & Hogs Company has proven once again to be a very sustainable model. I draw from two recent items in the news below.

　　

　　來自-加拿大商業(yè)雜志

　　

　　加拿大耕地價(jià)值增長放緩，其中大田作物價(jià)格的下降。

　　

　　ERIC ATKINS

　　

　　《環(huán)球郵報(bào)》/最近更新： 2017年4月10日，星期一，美國東部時(shí)間凌晨12:01

　　

　　農(nóng)業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)值的波浪隨著農(nóng)作物價(jià)格和農(nóng)業(yè)收入一同冷卻下來。

　　

　　根據(jù)加拿大農(nóng)業(yè)信貸組織報(bào)告，耕地平均價(jià)值在2016年上漲了8%，與2015年相比增長了10%，與2014年相比增長了14%，皇冠公司是加拿大最大一家面向農(nóng)民放貸的銀行。

　　

　　FCC首席農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家J.P. Gervais說，驅(qū)動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，最大驅(qū)動是全球農(nóng)業(yè)作物價(jià)格的下跌。

　　

　　根據(jù)加拿大統(tǒng)計(jì)局報(bào)告，加拿大農(nóng)場每英畝（包含建筑物）的平均價(jià)值，在2005年到2015年之間增加了一倍,增長到了2700美元。

　　

　　安大略省位于名單首位,每英畝土地10000美元,其次是B.C.省5450美元和Quebec省5100美元。

　　

　　From - CANADIAN BUSINESS

　　

　　Growth slows for Canadian farmland value amid declining field-crop prices

　　

　　ERIC ATKINS

　　

　　The Globe and Mail | Last Updated: Monday, Apr. 10, 2017 12:01AM EDT

　　

　　The surge in the value of agricultural real estate is cooling along with crop prices and farm revenues.

　　

　　Average farmland values rose by 8 per cent in 2016, down from 10 per cent in 2015 and 14 per cent in 2014 according to Farm Credit Canada, the Crown corporation that is Canada’s biggest lender to farmers.

　　

　　The biggest driver of the decline in growth is lower global prices for field crops, said J.P. Gervais, chief agricultural economist at FCC.

　　

　　An acre on the average Canadian farm doubled in value between 2005 and 2015, to $2,700, including the buildings, according to Statistics Canada.

　　

　　ontario leads the list, at $10,000 an acre, followed by B.C. at $5,450 and Quebec at $5,100.

　　

　　來自-Kevin Grier市場分析和咨詢公司-加拿大豬肉市場回顧-2017年4月10日，星期一

　　

　　安大略省的擴(kuò)張

　　

　　正如先前提到的，加拿大統(tǒng)計(jì)局2017年1月1日生豬存欄報(bào)告顯示，加拿大母豬存欄相比2016年1月增長了1%。也就是相對加拿大123萬頭母豬總?cè)后w，增加了大約14,500頭母豬?？梢钥闯鯩anitoba省和Saskatchewan省的母豬存欄有一個(gè)非常微弱的下降，Alberta省已經(jīng)增加了1%。British Columbia省進(jìn)一步下降了4%，母豬群體已經(jīng)變得非常小了。

　　

　　就其本身而言，Quebec省今年1月1日的母豬數(shù)量相比去年1月1日，有一個(gè)高于平均近2%的增長。報(bào)告中同樣有意思的是，安大略省相比2016年來說，是增長最大的一個(gè)省，有3.3%的增長率。事實(shí)上加拿大 14500頭的凈增長中，10000頭是來自安大略省。更有趣的是2017年可能繼續(xù)或超過這10000頭的增長率。

　　

　　From - Kevin Grier Market Analysis and Consulting Inc. – Canadian Pork Market Review - Monday, Apr. 10, 2017 -

　　

　　ontario Expansion

　　

　　As noted here previously, the Statistics Canada January 1, 2017 Hog Inventory report showed the Canadian sow inventory had increased by 1% compared to January 2016. That was an increase of about 14,500 sows for a total of 1.23 million sows in Canada. Both Manitoba and Saskatchewan saw very modest declines in the provincial sow herds while Alberta had a 1% increase. British Columbia’s already very small herd declined further by nearly 4%.

　　

　　For its part, Quebec saw an above average growth of nearly 2% as of January 1 this year compared to January 1 2016. What was also very interesting about the report was that ontario had the biggest increase of the provinces with a 3.3% growth rate in over the course of 2016. In fact of the 14,500 head net growth in Canada, 10,000 of that came from Ontario. What is even more interesting is that the 10,000 head rate of growth is likely to continue or to be exceeded in 2017.

　　

　　那么這其中有關(guān)聯(lián)嗎？我當(dāng)然沒有統(tǒng)計(jì)，也沒有科學(xué)或調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)支撐，但是我傾向于說“是”，而且非常確定。盡管加拿大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長一直相對溫和，我們有接近70%的增長都來自安大略省。為什么？

　　

　　哦，雖然過去三年生豬交易一直比2014的記錄要好，但是很難提出充分的理由證明安大略省已經(jīng)比加拿大其他任何地區(qū)要好。實(shí)際上安大略省隨著Quality肉聯(lián)廠的關(guān)閉和鉤環(huán)的長期的短缺，你也許會說情況更糟。當(dāng)然可用的加工商還沒有不得不追逐生豬利潤，“你的生豬將會在哪里屠宰”是一個(gè)值得持續(xù)關(guān)注的問題。然而我們轉(zhuǎn)向先進(jìn)篇針對土地價(jià)格的文章。我們看到安大略省的價(jià)格大約是全國平均水平的四倍，大約是鄰省的兩倍。安大略省每英畝土地平均價(jià)格超過10,000美元。我相信大多數(shù)觀察者認(rèn)為，安大略省西南部的七個(gè)縣生豬飼養(yǎng)區(qū)域還有85%提升，每英畝土地平均價(jià)格將接近20,000美元。這樣具有挑戰(zhàn)性的時(shí)期，擔(dān)負(fù)著相當(dāng)大的壓力。感謝你不能套出股本，現(xiàn)金流才是王道。但是硬資產(chǎn)的擔(dān)保（至少現(xiàn)在是升值）是一個(gè)極大的安慰。許多安大略省的長期生產(chǎn)商(25歲以上)指出，雖然自耕農(nóng)也許看起來更容易和更有吸引力(當(dāng)然是在過去數(shù)年)，但也只能夠保持生存。并不能購買很多東西。是生豬才使得大家有能力購買下一個(gè)豬場、設(shè)備、欄位。。。

　　

　　So is there a correlation here? I’m certainly no statistician and have no scientific or survey data to support it but I would be inclined to say yes, and a very strong one at that. Although growth in Canada has been relatively moderate we have close to 70% of that growth coming from Ontario. Why?

　　

　　Well, although the last three years in hog business have been good with 2014 one for the record books it would be difficult to make a case for ontario to have been in any better than any other region of Canada. In fact with closing of the Quality Meats packing plant and the perpetual shortage of shackles in ontario you could make a case for it being worse. Certainly the available packers haven’t had to chase hogs and the question of “where are you going to get your hogs slaughtered” is a virtual constant concern. However we then turn to the first article on land prices. We see ontario prices approximately four times the national average and approximately twice the next nearest province. Further the $10,000 per acre is the ontario average. Most observers I believe would suggest that the seven counties in South western ontario that would comprise 85% plus of the hog raising area the average land price would be closer to $20,000 per acre. This gives you considerable ballast for challenging times. Appreciate you can’t eat equity and ultimately cash flow is king. But the backstop of a hard asset (that at least for now is appreciating) is a great comfort to the bank. Many an ontario long term (25+ years) producer have spoken to point out that although dirt farming perhaps looks easier and more appealing (certainly over the last number of years) it just makes you a living. It doesn’t buy much of anything. It is the hogs that bought the next farm, the equipment, the barns…

　　

　　驅(qū)動安大略省巨大價(jià)格的因素很多。安大略省有很多配額（供應(yīng)管理乳制品和羽毛）等同于現(xiàn)金流。這些低利率產(chǎn)品使得他們追逐土地。經(jīng)濟(jì)作物的農(nóng)民直到最近一直運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)良好，因此他們在搜尋。隨著以上觀點(diǎn)的指出，養(yǎng)豬戶已經(jīng)認(rèn)為這對于他們的模式是一個(gè)可持續(xù)的因素。再加上城市壓力(安大略省西南部是加拿大人口最多的地區(qū))促進(jìn)活躍的商品經(jīng)濟(jì),正如他們說的“土地是不能再造的東西”。

　　

　　As to what drives this tremendous price in ontario a lot of factors. There is a lot of quota (supply managed dairy & feathers) in ontario with equity and cash flow. This with low interest rates has them chasing land. The cash crop farmers until lately have had a good run so they’re in the hunt. As pointed out the hog farmer has come to see this as a very sustainable ingredient to there model. This coupled with urban pressure (South western ontario is the most populous region in Canada) makes for a heady mix on a commodity as they say “they’re not making any more of”.

　　

　　作為這地平線上能夠掀起任何暴風(fēng)雨的媒體，曾經(jīng)推動在GTA(大多倫多地區(qū))房價(jià)上充滿了可怕的警告，也波及到了安大略西南部。這是一個(gè)泡沫嗎？它擴(kuò)大到耕地價(jià)格了嗎? 誰知道呢，我相信當(dāng)你開始思考任何事情只會朝著向上或向下方向走時(shí)，你很可能最終會失望。養(yǎng)豬生產(chǎn)者可能是獨(dú)特的例子，跟這樣一種信念相反，因?yàn)樵谶@樣一個(gè)看起來像是星期天坐過山車的商業(yè)周期中，他們肯定沒有一顆脆弱的心。當(dāng)然利率上升將改變計(jì)算方式，但對于原始的土地集約者來說，長期用玉米飼養(yǎng)生豬，然后豬的糞便返田，看起來像一個(gè)很成功，可持續(xù)的模式。

　　

　　As to any storm clouds on this horizon the press is full of dire warnings on ever accelerating house prices in the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) and rippling out into all of South western Ontario. Is it a bubble and does it extend to farmland prices? Who knows but I’ve come to believe when you get to thinking anything can only go one way be it up or down you will most likely end up disappointed. Hog producers are probably uniquely inoculated against such a belief, as they’re certainly in a business not for the faint of heart with a cycle that can make a rollercoaster ride look like a Sunday drive. Certainly rising interest rates will change the math but for the long game the original integrators of land to corn to hogs to manure and back around looks like a very winning, sustainable model.

　　

　　

　　加裕公司非常高興地宣布，Sarah Ethier被任命為遺傳學(xué)技術(shù)員。Sarah Ethier 2014年畢業(yè)于薩斯喀徹溫大學(xué)，隨后就職于Prairie養(yǎng)豬中心有限公司，擔(dān)任研究技術(shù)員。在薩斯喀徹溫大學(xué)期間，Sarah Ethier大學(xué)期間曾以暑期實(shí)習(xí)生的身份在Saskatoon 的Prairie養(yǎng)豬中心有限公司實(shí)習(xí)過。Sarah的新工作中，她將為加裕核心群和研發(fā)群體提供超聲和技術(shù)服務(wù)，協(xié)助協(xié)調(diào)和管理項(xiàng)目的研究和發(fā)展，以及組織樣品收集，數(shù)據(jù)支持加裕基因組評估項(xiàng)目。“我們期待Sarah會對加裕公司做出貢獻(xiàn)，她的技能，希望加入養(yǎng)豬行業(yè)，先前的工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)，持續(xù)的學(xué)習(xí)欲望，使得她非常適合這個(gè)崗位。我們基因和研發(fā)項(xiàng)目一直在擴(kuò)張，尋找合適人選支持，推動這些項(xiàng)目前進(jìn)，是加裕公司未來的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵。”遺傳項(xiàng)目和研發(fā)項(xiàng)目副總裁Bob Kemp博士談到。

　　

　　Sarah擁有Saskatchewan大學(xué)動物科學(xué)專業(yè)農(nóng)業(yè)和生物資源學(xué)士學(xué)位和Lethbridge大學(xué)動物科學(xué)專業(yè)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)畢業(yè)證書。

　　

　　Genesus is very pleased to announce the appointment of Sarah Ethier to the position of Genetics Technician.  Since her graduation from the University of Saskatchewan in 2014, Sarah has worked at the Prairie Swine Centre Inc. as a research technician. She had previously worked at the Prairie Swine Centre Inc. as a summer student while attending university in Saskatoon. In her new role, Sarah will provide ultrasound and technical services to Genesus nucleus and R&D herds, assist with coordination and management of research and development projects and tissue sample collection and database in support of the Genesus genomic eva luation program. “We look forward to Sarah’s contributions to Genesus, her skill set, desire to be involved in the swine industry, previous experience, and continuing desire to learn make her an excellent choice for this position. Our genetic and R&D programs are continuing to expand and finding the right people to support and move these programs forward is a key to the future of Genesus” says Dr. Bob Kemp, VP of Genetic Programs and R&D.

　　

　　Sarah holds a Bachelor of Agriculture and Bio-Resources with an Animal Sciences Major from the University of Saskatchewan and a Diploma in Agricultural Technology, Animal Science major from the Lethbridge College.

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