上周美國夏季瘦肉豬期貨價格每磅上漲了6美分，或者大約12美元/頭。在生豬市場持續(xù)下跌了幾周之后，很高興能夠看到一些生機。目前瘦肉現貨生豬價格是50美分，意味著大部分生豬生產商都在虧損，現在不是一個樂觀的時機，生產商需要更高的價格。

　　

　　母豬屠宰量反映了盈利能力和擴張速度。美國今年1-3月的母豬屠宰量比去年同期高出24,000頭。3月份就比去年同期高出15,000頭。

　　

　　In the last week U.S summer lean hog futures have jumped 6￠ lb. or about $12.00 a head.  Its great to see some life in the hog market after watching it sink continually for the last few weeks.  Current Lean Cash hog price in the 50’s means most hog producers have been losing money, its not a fun time, producers need higher prices.

　　

　　Sow slaughter is a reflection of profitability and expansion.  The U.S sow slaughter January-March is 24,000 higher year over year.  March was 15,000 higher this year compared to last.

　　

　　今年母豬市場比去年行情更高。3月1日美國生豬報告指出，從16年12月1日到17年2月底，美國母豬存欄在下降。在我們看來母豬群體增長并不顯著，年初至今更高的母豬屠宰量反映了這點。

　　

　　我們發(fā)現一些評論員的觀點挺有意思的，他們認為是新的屠宰加工廠引起了母豬群體的擴張?？赡苁前桑谖覀兛磥?，擴張的原因是盈利能力。自去年8月以來的情形看，我們行業(yè)還沒有盈利能力。沒有獨立生產商是由于新屠宰加工廠而擴張的；他們只會為了利潤而擴張。一些屠宰場所有者正在增加母豬屠宰數量，但是我們并不認為他們可以猛速增長母豬屠宰數量。一些擁有屠宰業(yè)務的大型養(yǎng)豬公司已經采購了現有母豬的設備；他們正在增加母豬群體，但是不是全部的母豬群體。

　　

　　Sow marketing’s are higher this year compared to last.  The March 1 U.S hogs and pigs report indicated a decrease in the U.S sow herd from Dec 1 to the end of Feb.  The higher sow slaughter year to date is a reflection in our opinion of a sow herd not growing significantly.

　　

　　We find it interesting when some commentators express the opinion that new packing plants are leading to rapid sowherd expansion.  Could be, but in our opinion expansion comes from profitability.  We haven’t had profitability as an industry that matters since last August.  No independent producer is expanding due to a new packer plant; independents will expand because of profits.  Some of the Packer owners are adding sows but we don’t believe its adding sows at a rapid rate.  Some of the pork powerhouses that are involved in packing have bought existing sow facilities; they are growing their sow herds but not the total sow herd.

　　

　　瘦肉豬期貨

　　

　　4月21日，7月的瘦肉豬期貨為69.225美分，7天之后即上周五4月28日，7月瘦肉豬期貨收盤于75.225美元。這里寫到的上漲6美分，在10月份早些時候廋肉豬期貨也有相同的漲幅，從4月21日的62.425美分，到4月28日收于66.650美分，每磅漲了4美分，每頭豬增加了8美元。7月廋肉豬期貨的增加遵循我們看到的過山車似的價格。3月14日，7月的價格從79美分下跌到4月21日的69美分，現在已經反彈到75美分了。

　　

　　On April 21 lean hog futures for July were 69.225 last Friday April 28, 7 days later July closed at 75.225.  The 6￠ lb. jump we wrote about earlier October lean hog futures also jumped going from 62.425 April 21 closing April 28 66.650, 4￠ a lb. jump or about $8 per head.  The increase of July lean hog futures follow the roller coaster of prices we have seen. March 14, July was 79￠ dropped to 69￠ April 21 now have rebounded to 75￠.

　　

　　架子豬

　　

　　現貨架子豬價格真實地反映了供應-需求-利潤率。4月1日40磅的架子豬均價為每頭77美元。上周，也就是4周之后美國40磅的架子豬均價為每頭56美元。四周內每頭豬降了20美元。同一時間瘦肉豬期貨也下降了，跟下跌的架子豬價格一同，受到了重創(chuàng)。

　　

　　Cash Feeder Pig Prices are real reflection of supply – demand – profitability.  At the first of April 40 lb. feeder pigs were averaging $77 each.  Last week, four weeks later U.S 40 lb. feeder pigs averaged $56 each.  A drop of $20 per head in four weeks.  The lean hog futures dropped in the same time frame, with this drop feeder pig prices took a big hit.

　　

　　總結

　　

　　我們根據母豬屠宰量提出疑問，母豬數量是否有顯著擴張。我們知道新屠宰場的產能正在提升。出口市場和國內豬肉需求良好。我們期待今年夏天瘦肉豬價格能夠被推高到每磅豬80美分。

　　

　　We look at sow slaughter and we question if there is significant sow expansion.  We know the new packing capacity is coming.  Exports and Domestic Pork Demand is good.  We expect lean hog prices will push to 80￠ lb. this summer.

您看到此篇文章時的感受是：