加裕養(yǎng)豬評(píng)論

　　

　　美國(guó)生豬生產(chǎn)商正受益于快速上漲的豬價(jià)。上周53-54%瘦肉豬價(jià)格從62.50美分攀升到69.94美分。每頭豬增加了15美元的收益。在過(guò)去兩周內(nèi)，市場(chǎng)上每頭豬收益已經(jīng)增加了近25美元。上周五美國(guó)胴體分割豬肉價(jià)格為83.29美元，這種情形下，我們預(yù)計(jì)瘦肉豬價(jià)格還會(huì)繼續(xù)上升。對(duì)于屠宰商來(lái)說(shuō)，仍有30美元的毛利潤(rùn)。我們預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)每周生豬市場(chǎng)交易的季節(jié)性下降還會(huì)持續(xù)，這將推高分割豬肉價(jià)格，同時(shí)隨著每周生豬交易減少，屠宰商的利潤(rùn)也會(huì)下降。這兩個(gè)因素都將導(dǎo)致瘦肉豬價(jià)格的上漲，我們?nèi)匀活A(yù)計(jì)今年夏天瘦肉豬能漲到80美分。

　　

　　我們已經(jīng)說(shuō)了幾個(gè)月的夏季瘦肉豬價(jià)格能達(dá)到80美分，應(yīng)該沒(méi)有大問(wèn)題，因?yàn)樯现芪?月瘦豬肉期貨收于78.60點(diǎn)，而我們是在7月廋肉豬期貨70美分的時(shí)候提出的80美分。時(shí)間會(huì)證明我們是對(duì)的。我們相信季節(jié)性生豬供應(yīng)下降，強(qiáng)勁的出口銷(xiāo)售，更低的屠宰加工毛利和新屠宰場(chǎng)產(chǎn)能的提升，是廋肉豬價(jià)能漲到80美分的訣竅。

　　

　　U.S Hog Producers are getting the benefit of rapidly rising prices.  In the last week 53-54% hogs went from 62.50 to 69.94.  A gain of $15 U.S per head.  The market has added nearly $25 a head in the last two weeks.  We expect lean hogs continue to rise with U.S pork carcass cut-outs $83.29 last Friday.  There is still $30 per head gross margin for Packers.  We expect the seasonal decline of U.S hogs marketed per week to continue to decline which will push pork cut-outs higher and with less hogs marketed per week for Packer margins to decline.  Both factors will lead to lean hog prices increasing and we still expect lean hogs in the 80’s this summer.

　　

　　Saying 80￠ in summer which we have said consistently for months is not a big risk when July lean hog futures closed Friday at 78.60, but we were saying 80 when July futures were 70￠.  Time will tell if we are right.  We believe seasonal hog supply decline, strong export sales, lower packer margin and new packing capacity coming on is the recipe for 80￠ plus lean hogs.

　　

　　其他觀察

　　

　　今年新建的首批屠宰加工廠已經(jīng)開(kāi)始投入生產(chǎn)?！皟?yōu)級(jí)豬肉”，位于明尼蘇達(dá)州溫頓的全新的屠宰廠已經(jīng)開(kāi)始屠宰生豬，在運(yùn)行的頭兩周內(nèi)，他們所有生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)都是學(xué)習(xí)入門(mén)。工廠如果滿負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，每天能夠屠宰6000頭生豬。

　　

　　“優(yōu)級(jí)豬肉”的重點(diǎn)是生產(chǎn)口感較好的-美味豬肉。加裕公司十分榮幸能與“優(yōu)級(jí)豬肉”合作，他們的目標(biāo)是成為優(yōu)質(zhì)豬肉的品牌領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。

　　

　　在“優(yōu)級(jí)豬肉”之后，愛(ài)荷華州的“Seaboard – Trumph”和密歇根州的“Hatfield’s”也將投入生產(chǎn)。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，美國(guó)的屠宰產(chǎn)能正在擴(kuò)大，這對(duì)美國(guó)生豬生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)好消息，提高利潤(rùn)率的好機(jī)會(huì)。

　　

　　The first of the major new U.S packing plants to be started this year has begun production.  Prime Pork in Windom, Minnesota, a state of the art plant has begun harvesting hogs with all targets of production being net in the first two weeks of running.  The plant at full capacity will harvest 6000 head per day.

　　

　　Prime’s focus is on producing the best tasting – flavorful pork.  Genesus is proudly associated with Prime and its goal to be a brand leader in quality pork.

　　

　　After Prime, Seaboard – Trumph in Iowa and the Hatfield’s in Michigan will come online.  No doubt U.S packing capacity is expanding, only good news for U.S hog producers and the opportunity for margin enhancement.

　　

　　越南

　　

　　上周的Genesus全球市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中，你可能會(huì)讀到越南令人崩潰的豬價(jià)。接近70美分的生產(chǎn)成本（飼料價(jià)格高）。越南生豬市場(chǎng)，每磅豬肉損失37美分，每頭豬大約損失100美元。前段時(shí)間，越南農(nóng)戶還能夠售出1.07美元/磅的價(jià)格。然而中國(guó)關(guān)閉了“活豬”交易=市場(chǎng)不景氣。我們預(yù)計(jì)越南將會(huì)有大規(guī)模的清群。當(dāng)生豬生產(chǎn)者每頭豬虧損100美元時(shí)，就會(huì)發(fā)生這種情況。越南是世界上第六大生豬生產(chǎn)國(guó)。

　　

　　This past week you might have read in Genesus Global Market Report the collapse of prices in Vietnam.  With a cost of production near 70￠ U.S lb. (high feed prices).  Vietnam hog market is 37￠ lb. losses per head are near $100 U.S per head.  A while ago Vietnamese farmers were getting $1.07 U.S per pound.  Then China cut off live hogs going there = market collapse.  We expect massive herd liquidation will be underway in Vietnam.  Its what happens when hog producers lose $100 per head.  Vietnam is the sixth largest hog producing country in the world.

　　

　　

　　據(jù)加拿大種豬出口商協(xié)會(huì)代表胡松報(bào)道，在過(guò)去10周中國(guó)的生豬價(jià)格從17.02元/公斤(1.12美元/磅)下跌到14.95元/公斤（98美分/磅），創(chuàng)2015年以來(lái)最低點(diǎn)。從分娩到育肥出欄，生產(chǎn)每頭豬仍然可以盈利340.63元（49美元）。在中國(guó)的生產(chǎn)成本大約是每磅活重80美分。這個(gè)生產(chǎn)成本可不低。如果美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商每磅活重的價(jià)格能有80美分，他們將會(huì)開(kāi)心得跳起來(lái)。

　　

　　As reported by Hu Song CSEA in the past 10 weeks the China national hog price declined from 17.02 Yuan/kg ($1.12 U.S lb.) to 14.95 Yuan/kg, 98￠ lb. U.S.  which is the lowest since 2015.  Hog production is still profitable 340.63 Yuan per hog $49 for farrow to finish.  Cost of production in China is roughly 80￠ U.S lb. live weight.  Certainly is not a low cost producer.  If U.S producers got 80￠ lb.  live weight they would be dancing for joy.

　　

　　生豬生產(chǎn)與房地產(chǎn)類似。位置，位置，位置。

　　

　　Hog production is similar to real estate.  Location, Location, Location.

　　

　　加裕新聞稿

　　

　　Genesus Press Release

　　

　　鐵騎力士集團(tuán)是由雷文勇先生（英文名雷霆）25年前創(chuàng)辦。它是農(nóng)業(yè)部指定的中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)綜合企業(yè)之一，有3條產(chǎn)業(yè)線，包括牲畜飼料、畜禽養(yǎng)殖和食品加工。在全國(guó)擁有51家子公司，超過(guò)6000名員工，年?duì)I業(yè)額在20億美元左右。該公司目前存欄商品蛋雞約300萬(wàn)只，種鴨60萬(wàn)只和母豬2萬(wàn)頭。業(yè)務(wù)未來(lái)發(fā)展將專注于生產(chǎn)和銷(xiāo)售品牌豬肉，在四個(gè)主要地區(qū)投入400萬(wàn)頭生豬產(chǎn)能，分別是四川三臺(tái)縣，四川涼山地區(qū)，貴州銅仁地區(qū)和新疆石河子地區(qū)。Genesus將提供來(lái)自加拿大的注冊(cè)純種豬。我們將提供種豬遺傳和技術(shù)服務(wù)，利用這些新遺傳資源，降低生豬生產(chǎn)成本、改善豬肉品質(zhì)，促成TQLS商業(yè)策略。

　　

　　TQLS was formed by Mr Lei Wenyong (Thunder in English name) 25 years ago. It is one of the China National Agribusiness Flagships designated by the Ministry of Agriculture with three  business lines including livestock feed, livestock and poultry farming and food processing.  There are over 6,000 employees working for its 51 subsidies across the country with annual turnover near USD $ 2 billion. The Company currently has an inventory of about 3 million egg layers, 600,000 breeding ducks and 20,000 sows. The future expansion of business will focus on production and marketing of branded pork with an projected capacity 4 million hogs in four major locations-Santai County of Sichuan, Liangshan Region of Sichuan, Tongren prefecture of Guizhou and Shihezi prefecture of Xinjiang.

　　

　　Genesus will provide registered purebred swine breeding stock from Canada.  These new genetics will contribute to above TQLS business strategy by lowering the hog production cost and improving meat quality through the supply of swine genetics and technical service.  

　　

　　鐵騎力士集團(tuán)與加裕公司合作簽字儀式

　　

　　TQLS and Genesus Contract Signing Ceremony

　　

　　中間為雷文勇先生和加裕公司副總裁Mike Van Schepdael

　　

　　Center Mr. Le Wenyong (Thunder) and Mike Van Schepdael Vice President - Genesus

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