美國農(nóng)業(yè)部上周五發(fā)布了6月1日生豬報(bào)告。非常多的生豬！220多萬的市場(chǎng)。這將導(dǎo)致在未來5個(gè)月里每星期增加近10萬頭生豬供應(yīng)給屠宰場(chǎng)。

　　

　　The USDA released the June 1st Hogs and Report last Friday.  Lots more pigs!  2.2 million more markets.  This will lead to almost 100,000 more hogs per week for plants year over year in coming 5 months.

　　

　　美國生豬報(bào)告  U.S Hogs and Pigs Report

　　

　　

　　簡(jiǎn)單計(jì)算，三月到五月底，比去年多了3%的母豬分娩數(shù)，多了1%的每窩提供的豬頭數(shù)=生豬產(chǎn)量比去年多4%。

　　

　　Simple Arithmetic March to end of May – 3% more farrowing’s – 1% bigger litter = Pig Crop 4% greater year over year.

　　

　　毫無疑問，未來幾周還會(huì)有更多的豬。加工商將繼續(xù)保持良好的利潤率，因?yàn)樵谛鹿S投產(chǎn)之前，加工產(chǎn)能將受到挑戰(zhàn)。在密歇根州的蘇城和哈德菲爾德市，Seaboard和Triumph之間數(shù)百萬美元的項(xiàng)目開始啟動(dòng)。

　　

　　There is no doubt there will be more hogs in the coming weeks.  Packers will continue with excellent margins, as packing capacity will be challenged until the new plants come on stream.  The multi million-dollar question is start dates for Seaboard-Triumph in Sioux City and Hadfield in Coldwater, Michigan.

　　

　　從去年秋天以來有兩家新工廠投產(chǎn)。密蘇里州的“Moon Ridge”(每天產(chǎn)能為3000頭)和明尼蘇達(dá)州溫頓的“Prime Pork”(每天產(chǎn)能為6000頭)。把這些加在一起，目前新的產(chǎn)能大約是每周5萬多頭。另外兩家工廠在蘇城(1萬頭一個(gè)班次)和科德沃特(1萬頭一個(gè)班次)。當(dāng)所有都納入運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，一周單班次產(chǎn)能可以屠宰16萬頭。一周兩班次的產(chǎn)能可以達(dá)到30萬。

　　

　　Since last fall two new plants have come on stream.  Moon Ridge in Missouri (3,000 capacity head per day) and Prime Pork in Windom, Minnesota (capacity 6,000 head per day).  Put these together and new capacity is currently about 50,000 more per week.  The other two plants in Sioux City (10,000 a shift) Coldwater (10,000 a shift).  When all up and running 160,000 a week single shift capacity.  2 shifts pushing 300,000 a week capacity.

　　

　　有趣的是6月1日的能繁母豬群是606.8萬頭。在12月1日，也就是6個(gè)月之前的能繁母豬群是609萬頭。如果正確的話，美國能繁母豬群比6個(gè)月前減少了2萬頭。不是一個(gè)數(shù)字就能表明母豬群的擴(kuò)張。

　　

　　One thing interesting is the June 1 breeding herd was 6.068 million.  The breeding herd on December 1 – 6 months ago was 6.090 million.  If correct the U.S breeding herd is 20,000 smaller then 6 months ago.  Not exactly a number indicating sow herd expansion.

　　

　　

　　豬肉需求強(qiáng)勁，上周五豬肉價(jià)格為1.03美元。我們正受助于強(qiáng)勁的精選牛肉價(jià)格，為每磅2.25美元。牛肉的價(jià)格是豬肉的兩倍還多。這無疑有助于豬肉需求和價(jià)格。上周五瘦肉型豬均價(jià)為每磅87.30美分。以這個(gè)價(jià)位，飼養(yǎng)分娩到育肥生豬的生產(chǎn)商每頭豬盈利范圍應(yīng)該是50-70美元。很不錯(cuò)。

　　

　　Pork Demand is strong with Pork cut-outs last Friday $1.03 lb.  We are being helped by strong Choice Beef cut-outs at $2.25 lb. Beef is more then double the price of pork.  This is certainly helping pork demand and prices.  Lean Hog Prices averaged 87.30￠ lb.  last Friday.  Farrow to Finish hog producers at this price should be making $50-70 head range. Its good.

　　

　　我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，分割塊的價(jià)值說明了一個(gè)事實(shí)。百磅培根價(jià)格是198.17，肋骨是141.24，臀部是109.42。任何胴體的所有部位都會(huì)有明顯的脂肪才會(huì)更美味。腰肌和火腿曾帶動(dòng)胴體價(jià)值，而現(xiàn)在腰肌只有94.64而火腿是74.85。腰肌是腹部?jī)r(jià)格的一半。這告訴我們什么。消費(fèi)者喜歡富含更多大理石紋脂肪豬肉的味道。每一分割塊的的價(jià)格都是由需求決定的。在過去，腰肌和火腿是豬肉分割塊中價(jià)格較高的部分。當(dāng)我們的行業(yè)開始沉迷于瘦肉生產(chǎn)，把含大理石紋豬肉分割塊剔除在外的時(shí)候，豬腹-排骨成為了每個(gè)分割塊中較高價(jià)值的部分。消費(fèi)者用他們的錢投票。我們什么時(shí)候才能得到消費(fèi)者的需求？而它正凝視著我們的臉。

　　

　　We find cut-out values tell a real story.  By Price a lb. Belly (Bacon) 198.17 Rib 141.24.  Butt 109.42.  All parts of any carcass that have significant fat which leads to flavor.  Loins and Hams used to drive carcass value but now only Loin 94.64 and Ham 74.85.  Loins are half the price of belly.  What does this tell us.  Consumers like the taste – flavor of Pork that has more fat-marbling.  Prices of each cut-out value is driven by demand.  In the past Loin and Ham have been the highest prices of the pork cut-out.  As our industry became obsessed with lean and took out the marbling the pork cut-out flipped with Belly-Ribs becoming the highest value per parts.  Consumers vote with their money.  When are we going to get what consumers want?  Its staring us in the face.

　　

　　全國豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)大會(huì)邀請(qǐng)

　　

　　NPIC Invitation

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