2017年6月21日周價(jià)格表

　　

　　加拿大-種植業(yè)和自駕之旅

　　

　　安大略已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了類似于北美大部分地區(qū)的經(jīng)歷，至少以過去幾年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)來看，我們以為玉米是在4月份播種，大多數(shù)生產(chǎn)商認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)“晚來的春天”。今年春天又濕又冷，至少在開始的時(shí)候是這樣，但也許比我們想象的要更接近正常。根據(jù)安大略農(nóng)業(yè)食品與鄉(xiāng)村事務(wù)部地區(qū)作物團(tuán)隊(duì)6月6日的數(shù)據(jù)，大約大豆已經(jīng)播種了40%，同時(shí)玉米預(yù)期種植面積已經(jīng)播種了90-95%。可食用的咖啡豆幾乎是按計(jì)劃進(jìn)行的，至少在6月20日之前沒有實(shí)際的減少產(chǎn)量。安大略省三種典型作物輪作中，冬季小麥看起來相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)，而且在大多數(shù)地區(qū)所有都已播種。

　　

　　ontario has experienced like apparently large parts of North America what most producers would deem a “backward spring” at least from the experiences of the last number of years where we’ve come to believe corn is suppose to go in April. This spring has been wet and cold at least to begin but perhaps a little closer to normal than we’ve come to think. According to the OMAFRA Field Crop Team as of June 6th approximately 40% of soybeans are planted with 90 – 95% of the intended corn acreage planted. Edible beans are rolling in pretty much on schedule with no real loss in yield at least up to June 20th. Winter wheat that rounds out the typical three crop rotation of ontario looks quite good and in most areas is all headed out.

　　

　　這些使得我自駕去了愛荷華州的得梅因，參加世界豬肉博覽會(huì)。沿著I-69、I-94和I- 80幾條路，可以從車中看到的一種完全不科學(xué)的農(nóng)作物之旅，似乎顯示出一幅類似的畫面。盡管有跡象表明可能會(huì)有大量的降水延遲大部分作物播種，但是似乎作物都已播種下去，雖然跟幾年前比可能有推遲，但看起來平衡得相當(dāng)好，跟“以往”沒有相差太多。我們理解那些沒有收獲的人不會(huì)欣賞這篇評(píng)論，但這是我開車去鄉(xiāng)村的原因。此外，至少目前市場似乎支持這種觀點(diǎn)，因?yàn)槿魏侮P(guān)于“傳染病與流行病”的言論，市場都沒有明顯的反應(yīng)。這對(duì)利潤率來說是一個(gè)好兆頭，因?yàn)榘泊舐允〉纳a(chǎn)商在許多種植作物和飼養(yǎng)生豬的問題上都是矛盾的，目前看來至少糧食價(jià)格是穩(wěn)定的，因此飼料價(jià)格也將保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。

　　

　　This brings me to the road trip to Des Moines Iowa for the World Pork Expo. A totally unscientific crop tour of what you can see from the car along I-69, I-94 and I-80 appeared to be showing a similar picture. Although there was signs of perhaps too much rain and delays most of the crop appeared to be in and although perhaps delayed from some years looked on balance quite good and not far from “normal”. Appreciate those without crop in won’t appreciate this assessment but that’s my take from driving the countryside. Also the market at least for now seems to support that view as there has been no significant movement in response to any talk of “plague and pestilence”. This bodes well for margins as though ontario producers are conflicted as many grow crops as well as feed hogs it appears for now at least grain prices and hence feed prices are going to remain relatively stable.

　　

　　這再加上豬價(jià)的反彈，似乎為世界豬肉博覽會(huì)帶來了一種相對(duì)樂觀的氣氛，這種氛圍也反映在了我在展會(huì)中采訪的整個(gè)安大略生產(chǎn)商們身上。安大略似乎像美國一樣正在經(jīng)歷一些擴(kuò)張，但要完全確定有點(diǎn)難度。我采訪過一位同事，他在一家建設(shè)豬場和銷售生豬設(shè)備的公司工作。他說，他不知道他為什么參加這個(gè)展會(huì)，因?yàn)樗F(xiàn)在最不需要的就是增加今年的工作量。他聲明說，等待漏縫地板需要3個(gè)月，而更換設(shè)備則需要4個(gè)月。盡管這是美國的情況，我在加拿大也聽過類似的故事。從表面上看，這種需求似乎預(yù)示著擴(kuò)張，或許是大規(guī)模擴(kuò)張。然而，人們需要考慮的是，這是否也是供應(yīng)的反映。在加拿大和美國，由于前10年的艱難時(shí)期，許多建筑商和設(shè)備供應(yīng)商轉(zhuǎn)而關(guān)注其他行業(yè)。建筑商也開始向商業(yè)、工業(yè)甚至住宅市場轉(zhuǎn)移，這也相應(yīng)降低了養(yǎng)豬行業(yè)的生產(chǎn)能力。因此，我們也許不能從這些設(shè)備和建筑材料上的全部預(yù)定和延期上，得出我們通常以為的擴(kuò)張。隨著管理制度，資本和勞動(dòng)力需求的增加，似乎至少有一些管理者在擴(kuò)張。然而，隨著時(shí)間的推移，“時(shí)間會(huì)證明一切”。

　　

　　This coupled with a rebounding hog price seem to be contributing a relatively upbeat mood at World Pork Expo and was reflected in the entire ontario producer I spoke to at the show. ontario seems to like the USA be experiencing some expansion but it is a little difficult to fully assess. I spoke at the show to one associate who works for a company building swine barns and selling hog equipment. He said he wasn’t sure why he was at the show as the last thing he needed right now was more work for the year. Stated that the wait for slats was now 3 months, on ESF equipment 4 months. Although this was for the US I’ve heard similar stories in Canada. On the surface this type of demand would seem to indicate expansion and perhaps major expansion. However one needs to consider whether it’s also a reflection of supply. In both Canada and the US because of challenging times of the previous decade to 2014 many builders and equipment suppliers moved to focusing on other species. Builders also moved to commercial, industrial and even residential opportunities with a corresponding drop in capacity for the swine industry. Therefore full books and delays in equipment and building materials perhaps don’t translate to the expansion we may have normally thought from these signals. This along with increasing regulation, capital and labour requirements appears to put at least some governor on expansion. However like the crop “time will tell” as the year continues to unfold.

　　

　　承蒙鮑勃·漢斯伯格的好意，沃倫斯坦農(nóng)場供應(yīng)表現(xiàn)出樂觀情緒的驅(qū)動(dòng)力。預(yù)計(jì)未來12個(gè)月的利潤為24.75美元，當(dāng)前平均生產(chǎn)成績的利潤為44.88美元，而先進(jìn)生產(chǎn)成績的利潤為63.30美元。跟管理者的建議一樣，也認(rèn)為擴(kuò)張看起來是必然的。希望屠宰加工商的擴(kuò)張，特別是在美國當(dāng)?shù)氐耐涝准庸ど?，能夠繼續(xù)保持領(lǐng)先。然而，殺豬可能是最容易的部分。你還得銷售豬肉。出口還需繼續(xù)發(fā)展!

　　

　　Here courtesy of Bob Hunsberger, Wallenstein Farm Supply shows the driver of the upbeat mood. Projected profits currently for the next 12 months of $24.75 and present margins with average production of $44.88 and with excellent production of $63.30. Even with the suggested governors this makes expansion seem inevitable. Hopefully slated packer expansion particularly stateside continues to run ahead of the curve. However getting the pig dead may be the easy part. You still have to sell the meat. Here’s to exports continuing to roll!

　　

　　全球大型生產(chǎn)商

　　

　　Global Mega Producer

　　

　　放眼全球，立足本地

　　

　　Think Globally, Act Locally

　　

　　在世界豬肉博覽會(huì)上，加裕公司與《全國養(yǎng)豬農(nóng)》聯(lián)合發(fā)起了全球大型生產(chǎn)商計(jì)劃。此項(xiàng)計(jì)劃認(rèn)可了擁有超過10萬頭母豬的全球生產(chǎn)商。

　　

　　At the WPX Genesus in conjunction with the National Hog Farmer launched the Global Mega Producer Initiative.  The Initiative recognizes the Global Producers over 100,000 sows.

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